How Blind Can Establishment Be? Remember What Cantor Campaign Said About Poll Data

Five days ago the Daily Caller ran this headline: “Shock Poll Shows Eric Cantor Struggling In Primary.”

Of course, the poll is no surprise to us now that Dave Brat won the primary. But what is interesting is how the Cantor campaign responded to it. I think it demonstrates the blindness I posted about earlier today.

A poll of Republican primary voters commissioned by The Daily Caller shows that GOP Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor is just above 50 percent in the hard-fought race for the 7th district nomination.

The poll showed that eight days before polling day on June 10, Cantor had firm support from 40 percent of 583 active primary voters, while challenger Dave Brat has firm support from 28 percent of those voters.

Another 12 percent of the respondents leaned towards Cantor, 11 percent leaned towards Brat, and 9 percent were undecided or declined to answer, said the poll, which was conducted June 2 by Vox Populi Polling.

That leaves Cantor with 52 percent support on June 2, his rival with 40 percent support, and 9 percent undecided.

For Cantor, that’s a sharp fall from 2012, when he defeated his primary opponent by 79 percent to 21 percent.

Cantor’s campaign office dismissed the poll. “We’re going to win by a much stronger margin… our internal polling shows that,” Ray Allen, Cantor’s campaign chief, told TheDC. Allen said he had not decided whether to release his own campaign’s polls.

So now we know that either people changed their minds after the poll or else people didn’t tell the truth. Perhaps people who want to vote for the underdog feel compelled to hide it when asked about it. Maybe more of those undecideds were actually in favor of Brat. I don’t know.

But, in keeping with my “ruling class blindness” theory, notice the seeming inability of the Establishment to believe in their own unpopularity.