Other experts are beginning to agree with their predictions, but not many people give credence to the Farmer’s Almanac. It makes predictions based on a secret method, but we are told that they use sunspot activity in making their calculations.
Imagine that: some people believe the sun affects the earth’s temperature.
The Associated Press reports, “Shivery and shovelry ahead: Farmers’ Almanac predicts another bitterly cold, wet winter.”
The folks at the Farmers’ Almanac can be forgiven for feeling smug: The 198-year-old publication correctly predicted the past nasty winter while federal forecasters blew it.
Memories of the polar vortex and relentless snowstorms won’t soon be forgotten. And the editors of the publication are predicting more of the same for the coming season.
“Shivery and shovelry are back. We’re calling for some frigid conditions, bitter conditions,” said managing editor Sandi Duncan.
The latest edition, which officially goes on sale this week, forecasts colder-than-normal and wetter-than-usual weather for three-quarters of the country east of the Rocky Mountains. Drought-stricken California, along with the Pacific Northwest, will see normal precipitation and cool temperatures this winter, the almanac said.
The publication, not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac, uses a secret formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and lunar cycles for its long-range weather forecasts.
Modern science doesn’t put much stock in the formula.
But even modern meteorologists can stumble on long-term forecasts. The national Climate Prediction Center forecast a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures from last November through January.
“Not one of our better forecasts,” Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center’s acting director, said at the time. There’s still no good explanation as to why the polar vortex moved so deep into the U.S., he said.
Of the Farmers’ Almanac, he said, “Good for them if they got it right last year, and I’ll leave it at that.”
One major difference between the Federal employees at the Climate Prediction Center and the Farmer’s Almanac is that the editorial staff of Farmer’s Almanac don’t fear nearly the same pressure to support the idea of Global Warming.
I have no idea if we should “put much stock” in the reliability of the Farmer’s Almanac, but I do think we have no reason to trust government experts on climate.