Get Real: Chris Christie Will Barely Be a Blip in the GOP Primaries in 2016

Newser summarizes some tardy but clear thinking about Christie’s popularity:

Sure, Chris Christie’s pugnacity has served him well on the statewide stage—but will it continue to work on the national one? He’d better not assume anything: Winning “fosters hubris and often reinforces the wrong lessons,” writes Matt Lewis in the Week. “So far, Christie’s confrontational style has mostly come across as refreshing.” But “what happens when MSNBC plays video of him yelling at someone for the millionth time, and after George Will or Charles Krauthammer writes the column about the danger of an angry man having his finger on the button?”

But none of that goes far enough. Christie’s only shot at the Presidency would be to join the Democratic Party and get Hillary to cooperate with his ambition. Assuming she wants to be President in 2016 then there is no way Christie gets the White House.

Claiming that Christie has a shot is a mistake much like the error of worrying about the unpopularity of Congress. Congress isn’t trying to win a national election. Each member of Congress only needs to win the voters in his district. And voters are notorious for believing that “their” Representative or Senator is better than the rest.

Likewise, Christie is popular in New Jersey. The Republicans who may still admire him (outside of the RINOs who really want him) only admire his work in New Jersey. That doesn’t make him nationally popular enough to win the Presidency. The base won’t support him and no Republican candidate wins without the base. The Democrats outside New Jersey (and inside it) will never vote for Christie over a Democratic candidate.

When 2016 comes around, all this Christie hype will sound silly. People will feel about it the way they feel watching Rick Perry endorse Rudy Giuliani.

So how well did that turn out?

Giuliani couldn’t even beat Ron Paul back in 2008 before the financial crisis made Ron Paul more credible.

Every election cycle the liberals and RINO Republicans pretend their preferred champion has a real chance to win. Every time it is proven to have been wishful thinking.

Christie won’t be any different.