Rich Republicans are about to see their funds used on an expensive TV campaign for Jeb Bush. I predict disappointing results.
Since the money is coming from a Super PAC, I suppose other people besides rich Republicans might have donated to it. But I doubt their contributions are that significant. According to the Associated Press, “Pro-Bush super PAC spending $10M-plus on initial TV campaign.”
The heavily funded super PAC backing Republican Jeb Bush will spend at least $10 million on television time in the earliest voting presidential primary states, the first salvo in a massive TV ad campaign to support the former Florida governor’s bid for the Republican nomination.
Officials with Right to Rise USA say they will buy time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina TV markets and on cable television in the three states. Ads are scheduled to begin in Iowa and New Hampshire on Sept. 15, in South Carolina a week later and then run continuously through the end of the year.
The plan, shared by the group with The Associated Press prior to Monday’s buy, is the first evidence of Right to Rise USA’s major strategic spending of the roughly $100 million it had on hand last month. It’s also the first major move by the group, which was developed by longtime Bush adviser and California ad maker Mike Murphy, to run alongside Bush’s own campaign organization, which is bound by federal fundraising limits.
Here’s my prediction: The TV industry will appreciate the stimulus but all this spending is not going to significantly move Jeb Bush ahead in the polls.
I have already written about the popularity of non-political candidates in this race: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina. Do I think those voters might change their minds and vote for another candidate? Absolutely. But the chances of them switching to Jeb Bush are slim to none. Cruz, Rand, or Rubio has a much better chance.
But, as I said, most people are saying they are still undecided. So couldn’t they swing Jeb Bush’s way? Maybe some of them can be convinced, but consider Jeb Bush’s number one selling point: he is allegedly the most obvious candidate, the one with the best chance of winning, and the obvious leader once we get rid of the hated Trump.
But how can a person be “obvious” or “the front runner” and get upstaged so easily, both in the polls and in person, by Donald Trump. He should at least be close to his opposition if he were so decidedly the right pick for the nomination.
So my prediction is that spending money on advertising will prove mostly futile. If Jeb Bush gets the nomination it will be because other candidates shoot themselves. If he wins the Presidency, it will be because Hillary ends up in prison.