More Surprised Economists, More Bad Economic News

Once again we are told of “unexpected” bad economic news.

As I have already pointed out, the media is constantly telling us that we should be surprised by the most obvious developments in the economy. They almost always give us rosy predictions and then are shocked by bad economic news. The media never allows these failed predictions to be considered as evidence that our economists are a bunch of regime propagandists trying to build up confidence in the economy for the sake of the regime. Instead, the fact that our economists never expected bad economic news is treated as prima facie evidence that the news was completely unpredictable.

What if our reporters, instead of making these self-serving assumptions, always stopped listening to or reporting on the predictions of economists who had failed and turned their attention to the economists who succeeded in predicting bad economic news?

So here we go again as seen on the headline at “This Month’s Jobs Report a Surprise—the Bad Kind.”

The US economy added just 126,000 jobs in March—not even close to the 248,000 economists had expected, the Wall Street Journal reports. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, at 5.5%. At the Journal, Paul Vigna calls the jobs number a “surprise,” noting that’s the slimmest gain since December 2013. In more gloomy news, February and January new jobs numbers were revised down: February saw 264,000 jobs added, not the previously reported 295,000, and January was revised from 239,000 to 201,000—after already having been revised from an original estimate of 257,000.

So not only were the predictions way off, but the past news was actually false.

Perhaps I’m preaching to the choir here, but in case anyone else is reading: isn’t it time you realized that there are three types of mainstream economists?

  1. Economists who don’t know what they are talking about.
  2. Economists who think it is their job to make upbeat predictions in order to generate confidence and good feelings about the economy.
  3. Economists who combine 1 and 2.

It happens all the time. If we are in economic prosperity, then economists tell us that it will last, and their only advice is to increase some aspect of government power in order to help some people who are missing out on the prosperity. If we are in an economic recession, then economists tell us that recovery is just around the corner and their only advice is to increase some aspect of government power in order to help people out during the economic bad times.

In good times and bad the future always holds good times and the need for more government empowerment.

It is all a scam.