Report: Oceans Cannot Explain Lack of Global Warming

We posted about the so-called “pause” in global warming back in the summer of 2013. We also reported back then on how scientists invoked the ocean to explain the “pause.”


There were several problems with this analysis. In the first place, they had no reason to call the halt in rising temperatures a pause because that presumed they knew that the rise in temperature would resume. It is true they had a theory that predicted a rise in temperature, but that same theory never predicted a pause in the rising temperature. So why trust the theory when it is plainly wrong?

Nevertheless, they trusted the theory and claimed that the oceans were absorbing the heat that would otherwise raise the temperature of the planed. Michael Minkoff asked some good questions about this theory:

Was the ocean not there in the 80s and 90s, or am I missing something? Wouldn’t it have acted as a heat sink then as well? They apparently have an answer for that as well: deep ocean temperatures have continued to increase in the last ten or so years, even though surface temperatures have remained fairly steady. But no word on why they weren’t sucking up all the surface heat in the 80s and 90s? I don’t get it. Why is an increase in deep ocean heat correlative to a hiatus of surface temperature increases?

Another question would be how the heat could be transmitted into the ocean without surrounding environmental elements also being heated up. How can the deep ocean be warmed by the sun and the atmosphere not be hot?

According to the Daily Caller, however, it turns out that the oceans cannot explain what happened:

Some climate scientists have tried to explain away the lack of global warming in the last 18 years by blaming oceans. The idea is that excess heat from burning fossil fuels has been trapped deep in the ocean depths, causing them to warm instead of the atmosphere.

But this theory seems to fall apart in the face of a new report by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which analyzes satellite and direct temperature data to conclude that the ocean’s depths — below 1.24 miles — have not warmed since 2005.

“The deep parts of the ocean are harder to measure,” said JPL’s William Llovel, the study’s lead author. “The combination of satellite and direct temperature data gives us a glimpse of how much sea level rise is due to deep warming. The answer is — not much.”

Ocean warming has also been a major explanation for rising sea levels because water expands as it warms. JPL study authors noted that sea levels are still rising, but ocean warming contributed almost nothing to this rise since 2005.

Of course, the study authors claim that global warming has happened and that, despite the almost two-decade “pause,” it is still happening. The study claims that upper ocean warming must account for the lack of global warming anywhere else. So, we are supposed to believe that both the surface temperature of the earth and the deep ocean remain constant, and only the upper ocean was affected?

Does that sound plausible?

While none of this proves that man-made global warming is real, it does show that the world is far more complicated than any simple model. If scientists didn’t expect any of this to happen, shouldn’t they admit that they really don’t know the future with much certainty?