Polls seem to show Republicans losing Texas. But there is no reason for Conservatives to lose hope.
How worried should we be? I certainly don’t want to lose the help of the Texas electoral college!
According to the Houston Chronicle,
Despite Texas’ reputation as a Republican bulwark and a stronghold for conservatism, the state’s electorate doesn’t lean as hard to the right you’d think. Not by a long shot.
Data from Gallup Daily tracking interviews in 2014 – which interviewed more than 177,000 U.S. adults – showed that Wyoming and Utah are the top two most Republican states again. Wyoming (Republican advantage: 35.5 percent) and Utah (33.1 percent) have topped the list every year since 2008.
The poll asked respondents to identify as Democratic or Republican Party members. Independents were asked in which direction they leaned. Nationwide, respondents identified as Democrats by a 3 percent margin. Massachusetts and Maryland were the most Democratic states, and the only two blue states with a party gap greater than 20 percent.
The 10 most Republican states all hold advantages over the Democratic Party by more than 10 percent. But Texas is not among these “solid Republican” states nor the “leaning Republican” states (states where the party gap is between 5 and 10 percent). Instead Texas is among the 18 competitive states, with Republicans holding a 3.9 percent advantage over Democrats.
That small percent still means a more than 1 million voter-advantage for Texas’ Republicans.
Obviously, if we assume that the Republican Party is the best vehicle for conservatives to express themselves politically, then we want more Republican victories and, thus, want Texas’ electoral college for the Republicans. So it would be better to see that margin increase.
Will it? The Houston Chronicle article goes on to say that we should expect the Republican advantage to dwindle even more. But their evidence (a growing, poor, Hispanic population they claim will remain in poverty unless the state spends more on education) isn’t that convincing to me. We’ll just have to see.
In the meantime, remember that Millennials are voting Republican—yes, even Hispanic ones. They are more opposed to abortion than their parents. And they hate being exploited by cheap socialistic programs as much as anyone else.
Texas is just one demographic shift. It is a negative trend but it isn’t the only trend. And we really don’t know how the future will play out.
The important thing is to not let Liberals induce us to despair and stop fighting.