Trump’s Appeal Is Actually Underestimated

This report must have made Neocons and Establishment Republicans even more unhappy. It is from the L.A. Times: “Polls may actually underestimate Trump’s support, study finds.”

The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.

The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate — online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are “less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm’s polling director, Kyle Dropp.

With Trump dominating political debates in both parties, gauging his level of support has become a crucial puzzle. The Morning Consult study provides one piece of the solution, although many other uncertainties remain.

There are several complicating factors including the fact that a lot of support for Trump comes from independents. It is less certain, we are told, how many of them will vote in the primary. From the level of fanaticism I have seen from Trump supporters I suspect that analysts are going to be shocked at how much turnout there it for Trump.

The firm polled 2,397 potential Republican voters earlier this month, randomly assigning them to one of three different methods — a traditional telephone survey with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones, an online survey and an interactive dialing technique that calls people by telephone and asks them to respond to recorded questions by hitting buttons on their phone.

By randomly assigning people to the three different approaches and running all at the same time, the researchers hoped to eliminate factors that might cause results to vary from one poll to another.

The experiment confirmed that “voters are about six points more likely to support Trump when they’re taking the poll online than when they’re talking to a live interviewer,” said Dropp.

The most telling part of the experiment, however, was that not all types of people responded the same way. Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump’s support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a significant difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.

Well, well! It seems that you can enforce political correctness on campus, but you can’t control what students will do in private.

My guess is that this will also affect exit polls the night of elections. College students will also be less likely to confess they voted for Trump.