If you don’t think Jeb Bush can win, you need to think about how the numbers work with multiplying candidates.
In considering why the Republican Establishment thinks Jeb Bush can win, remember: The people sponsoring Jeb Bush are pretty sure they will be just as happy if Hillary Clinton wins. That is important because it means a disaffected conservative base that refuses to go to the polls resulting in a Hillary Clinton victory does not frighten them. If the Republican nominee is Jeb Bush and the Democrat nominee is Hillary Clinton, then they have won the contest. Which of the two becomes President is not that important.
So how does Jeb Bush win the Republican nomination?
This article at Restoring Liberty seems to have a reasonable analysis of how Jeb Bush can become the Republican candidate. The math is simple enough. If Jeb Bush has a minority of voters all you need to do to turn that around is make sure that the rest of the voters are split among a number of other candidates. If you put enough candidates in the race, then Jeb Bush becomes the leader.
Let’s take Florida as an example. This example is chosen because Florida is essentially the fulcrum point underpinning the road map. Florida is the tipping point for Bush, just like it was for Romney in ’12.
If Florida was a contest between Jeb Bush and Scott Walker a polled outcome might be:
Bush 45% – Walker 55%
Or, if Florida was a contest between Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz the outcome might be:
Bush 40% – Cruz 60%
[It’s important to remember here that we are talking about PRIMARY VOTERS and PRIMARY ELECTIONS. Only about 1/4 of all Republicans will vote in a primary, and the number of GOPe (employees) within the population who show up to a primary represents a higher percentage than exist in the Republican general election. ]
So, in this example, Florida, if you want Bush to win you need to change the options.
If you test out Bush, Walker and Cruz. The outcome might be:
Bush 30% – Cruz 35% – Walker 35%
Your guy is still losing but the race is closer. So you put another factor into the equation:
Bush 25% – Rand Paul 10% – Cruz 35% – Walker 30%
Your guy still losing. So you put another factor into the polled equation:
Bush 25% – Rand Paul 10% – Cruz 25% – Walker 20% – Marco Rubio 20%
OK, better. Now your guy is tied. Marco Rubio is the guy who has “split” the opponent to provide you the benefit to run a possible Florida primary race, and achieve victory at 25%. So we call Marco Rubio “the splitter“.
The key now becomes growing your own popularity, and enhancing anyone who would take away from the biggest challenger within your opponent group. Again, remember this is a “Republican Primary” weighted, by the influence of the party apparatus, to support the “party guy” (in this case Jeb).
With the race successfully split, now you need to “fracture” the biggest challenger within the group:
Bush 25% – Paul 8% – Cruz 22% – Walker 19% – Rubio 20% – Rick Perry 6%
BINGO ! Bush wins.
Notice Bush didn’t win by gaining support, he won by fracturing his opponents’ support. This is the GOPe “splitter” strategy within the 2016 Road Map.
Also notice, the plan is not necessarily dependent on a “Rick Perry” to finish. There’s always: Fiorina (for women), Huckabee/Santorum (for evangelicals), or Christie, Carson etc.
THEN – If you changed the rules to make Florida a “Winner Take All” race (which the RNC/GOPe did in the road map/rule phase) well, your guy BUSH just won ALL 99 Delegates with only 25% of the electorate supporting him.
It is beautifully simple, is it not?
According to the writer, Donald Trump has not been helpful to Jeb Bush as I thought on the basis of some media reports. Trump is destroying the GOP establishment’s game plan.
There is no love lost between Trump and me, but I am pretty happy he is messing up the Jeb Bush parade.